Global Ag News for July 23.24

TOP HEADLINES

EU Corn Yield Forecast Cut to Below Five-Year Average: MARS

The European Union’s corn yield is now expected to be lower than the five-year average because of unfavorable weather, the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday.

• Production is now estimated at 7.24 tons per hectare, compared with June’s estimate of 7.55 tons
• “Forecasts for almost all crops were revised downwards, but remain close to the 5-year average”
• Southern-central and southeastern Europe experienced an “exceptionally hot” June and July, with temperatures topping 35C (95F), negatively affecting summer crops around flowering
  • “In eastern Hungary, eastern Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece the high temperatures were coupled with a persistent rain deficit, exacerbating these negative impacts”
• Wet weather affected northwestern Europe’s production

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, down 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/4; Soybeans up 33 1/2; Soymeal up $11.50; Soyoil up 0.93.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 31 in SRW, down 21 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 34 1/2; Soymeal down $16.50; Soyoil up 1.11.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.6% in SRW, down 12.0% in HRW, down 14.9% in HRS; Corn is down 15.2%; Soybeans down 13.6%; Soymeal down 11.0%; Soyoil down 1.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 25 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil up 82; Palm oil up 94; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 18. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 18 ringgit (-0.45%) at 3967.

 

There were changes in registrations (-14 Corn). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 50 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,182 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 22 were: SRW Wheat up 1,745 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,029, Corn up 4,101, Soybeans down 3,843, Soymeal down 2,576, Soyoil up 4,839.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers continue through Tuesday. Montana was hot and the heat will spread eastward this week, though will become less intense as the week wears on. A cold front will move into the region on Friday and be slow to move out until early next week. Models show precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans in some areas as well. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development but could use some more rain in some cases as well.

Central/Southern Plains: An upper-level low pressure system responsible will continue showers through Tuesday before moving east. Even with it gone, isolated showers may still form later this week. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide more. Temperatures have been mild this weekend and continue most of this week, gradually moderating closer to or above normal by the weekend. The situation is fairly positive for most areas of the region though there are some areas that are being missed by the rainfall.

Midwest: An upper-level low will be in the region producing areas of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday or Thursday though most areas will see light or no rain while only small areas should see moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Most areas are in good shape at the moment, but pockets of the region will be missed by the incoming rain and could lead to dryness concerns.

Delta: A front that settled across southern areas this weekend brought areas of heavy rainfall. The front should continue that for most of this week. Northern areas will see pockets of showers move through this week also as an upper-level low slowly moves through. Models are mixed on if showers will continue over the weekend into next week or wait for another front to move through. Either way, most areas will see good rain, though southern areas might have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms.

Canadian Prairies: An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the region and brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. Disturbances have tried to bring showers through, but with limited success, including over the weekend. The ridge will get pushed eastward later this week as a trough moves into British Columbia, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend with the trough moving in, but the ridge is forecast to redevelop for the last few days of July into August and may cause more heat stress.

 

The player sheet for 7/22 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, buyers of 10,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 133,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for 2024-25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• CORN TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines issued an international tender to buy up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 320,000 metric tons of rice.

PENDING TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 971k Tons of Corn for Export, 327k of Soybeans

In week ending July 18, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 327k tons vs 175k the previous wk, 289k a yr ago
• Wheat: 238k tons vs 621k the previous wk, 361k a yr ago
• Corn: 971k tons vs 1,092k the previous wk, 330k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 18

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 18 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Germany-bound shipments made up 114k tons of the 327k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 83% Done as of July 18: AgRural

Compares with 74% a week earlier and 47% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Works are close to completion in Mato Grosso
• In some areas of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo, rains limited the progress of the harvest for the second straight week
  • There were no reports, however, of quality problems
  • Harvest is still significantly ahead of the historical average in those states

 

Europe Corn Yields to Trail Five-Year Average on Brutal Heat

Corn yields in the European Union are expected to slip below the five-year average as relentless heat hits during a critical point in the crop’s development.

Each hectare — on average — is now expected to produce at 7.24 tons of grain, down 4% from a June forecast, according to a Monday report from the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit. Hot and dry weather has reigned in major producers in southeast Europe, with Romania facing the hottest June to mid-July since 1975, the report said. In France, corn ratings recently deteriorated, too.

Corn futures traded in Paris for August delivery rose to the highest in more than six weeks. The November contract, tracking supplies after the next harvest, also gained.

Nearby, major corn exporter Ukraine has seen record-high July temperatures in several cities. Half of corn and oilseeds in the Black Sea region may remain adversely dry into early August, Commodity Weather Group said in a note.

“Corn prices are being boosted in the new marketing year by the continuing deterioration in crops in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea,” according to Argus analysts.

The International Grains Council cut its estimate for Ukraine’s corn production last week and Strategie Grains has projected EU corn production lower than the prior season.

“If corn crop projections show further downgrades in Ukraine as well, I am confident that we might see a significant corn price rally on the Black Sea market,” said Gabriel Razi, an analyst at Romanian grain market consultancy AgroBrane.

 

Grains Group Lifts Western Australia Estimate by 10% After Rain

Western Australia is on track to produce as much 18 million tons of grains — including wheat, barley and canola — this season after two weeks on increased rainfall, if the current trajectory of weather patterns continue, according to the Grains Industry Association of Western Australia.

• That’s up from the association’s estimate earlier this month of 16.3 million tons
• Wheat production is estimated to be 10.5 million tons, 12.3% higher than previously expected, said Michael Lamond, an agronomist at the association who writes the crop reports
• The late season is still likely to limit top-end potential, and subsoil moisture in the state’s grain belt is still historically very low, he said
• “We were really on a knife edge up until two weeks ago, with two to three million hectares starting to wilt. But this has turned around with a couple of weeks of rain”

 

Indonesia Starts Trial of 40% Mix Palm Oil Biodiesel on Trains

The energy and mineral resources ministry started a two month-long trial on the use of 40% palm oil-mixed biodiesel, also known as B40, on trains, according to a statement on Tuesday.

• Next trials to be conducted on agricultural machines, mining, shipping and power plants
• Govt expects all trials can be concluded in Dec. for B40 to be implemented in 2025
• The program may save $9 billion or 144 trillion rupiah of fuel import cost a year
• B40 policy may cut 42.5m tons of carbon emission/year from estimated use of 16m kiloliters of biofuels

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Demand continues firm; weather concerns players

The demand for high-quality wheat continues increasing in the domestic market, but stocks are limited and there are concerns about weather conditions for the current season. Players are also focused on international trades and on low volumes of rainfall over the last weeks.

Planting activities have practically finished in Paraná, with 99% of the total already planted. Seab/Deral indicates that 66% of the areas are in good conditions, while 23% are on average situation and 11% are in bad shape. In Rio Grande do Sul, the planting hit 85% of the total.

According to data from Cepea, between July 12 and 19, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 1.03% in Rio Grande do Sul, but remained stable in Paraná and in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations upped 1.05% in São Paulo, but dropped 0.17% in Paraná and 0.43% in Rio Grande do Sul, remaining stable in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations moved up 3.07% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.599 on July 19.

BYPRODUCTS – From July 12-19, values of wheat bran in bags increased 0.61% and 1.16% for the product in bulk.

Up to the second week of July (10 producing days), Brazil imported 230.18 thousand tons, 45% less than in July/23 (417.75 thousand tons in 21 working days).

 

 

 

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