Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Sept 19.24
September 19, 2024
CORN
Prices were mixed and within a penny of unchanged in quiet 2 sided trade. While Dec-24 traded above last week’s high it failed to take out the September high $4.16. Next resistance is the July high at $4.26 ½. Support is at the 50 day MA at $4.04 ¼. The US $$$ has fallen to a 14 month low after the Fed Reserve announced a 50 bp cut in the Fed funds rate. Chinese customs data showed their Aug-24 imports at 430k mt, down 64% YOY and bring YTD imports to 12.56 mmt, down 15.7%. After raising their Russian wheat production forecast .4 mmt yesterday to 82.9 mmt, SovEcon today lowered their total grain production forecast 4 mmt to 124.4 mmt today. Must be lower corn and barley production… ? Yesterday France’s Ag. Ministry raised corn production .4 mmt to 14.4 mmt. Today France AgriMer raised their forecast 1.4 mmt to 13.4 mmt. US ethanol production slipped to 1,049 tbd last week, down from 1,080 tbd the previous week however up 7% YOY. There was 105.5 mil. bu. of corn used, or 15.1 mil. bu. per day just above the 14.9 mbd needed to reach the 24/25 USDA forecast of 5.450 bil. As we forecasted the USDA last week raised their 2023/24 usage est. 15 mil. bu. to 5.465 bil. Implied gasoline usage rose 3.5% to 8.776 mbd, and was up 4.4% YOY. Ethanol stocks were steady at 23.8 mil. barrels, in line with expectations however well above YA at 21.7 mb.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.06-$.08 as spreads firmed up, meal was down a few ticks while oil was up 45. Nov-24 beans closed right at its 50 day MA at $10.14, a technical level it has been below since late May-24. Resistance for Oct-24 oil is at its 50 day MA at 41.86. Outside trading session for Oct-24 meal however very little net change for the day. Support is just below the market at the 50 day MA at $313.30. Spot board crush margins dropped $.03 to $1.36 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slightly above 39%. Good rains are expected to fill in over areas of the WCB and central plains this weekend into early next week. By early next week rains will stretch into the NC Midwest and Great Lakes region. Little to no rain expected for the southern Midwest and Delta region along with the northern plains. Rains will persist in Southern Brazil over the next 7-10 days gradually pushing north into Sao Paulo, Parana and Southern MGDS. Mato Grosso in WC Brazil is expected to remain hot/dry for another week to 10 days with better rain prospects in late Sept. and early Oct. Egypt’s Supply Minister claims the country has adequate vegetable oil supplies to last just over 7 months. Food industry executive in India expect their 24/25 vegoil consumption will grow 2-3% despite an increased import duty. They expect palm oil imports in 24/25 to reach 9-10 mmt, while sunflower oil and soyoil imports both at 3 mmt. Brazilian soybean exports in Sept. are expected to drop to 5.83 mmt, down from 11.25 mmt in Aug. and below the 6.4 mmt in Sept-23. US export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 20-55 mil. bu. for beans, 100-500k tons for meal and 0-15k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices were little changed with Chicago and KC steady to $.01 lower while MGEX was down $.04-$.05. Support for Dec-24 Chicago is at its 50 day MA at $5.61 ½. Same for Dec-24 KC at $5.71 ½ and MGEX at $6.10. Healthy rains fell in SW KS and the OK panhandle in the past 24 hours providing localized relief from recent drought. Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin wheat at just below $266/mt CF for late Dec-24 shipment. Tunisia is tendering for 125k mt of optional origin milling wheat and 100k mt of optional origin durum wheat both for Oct/Nov shipment. Both tenders closing tomorrow. Egypt’s Supply Minister claims the country has adequate wheat supplies to last 6 months. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry is holding their winter wheat acreage forecast at 4.5-5 mil. HA despite ongoing drought throughout much of the country. Food industry executives in India say the Govt. needs to release more government held stockpiles to bring down domestic prices. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 12-22 mil. bu.
Charts provided by USDA Charts.
>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Silver Futures Sharply Higher
September 19, 2024
Indices Sharply Higher Post Rate Cut
September 19, 2024
