Written Commentary
Ag Market View for October 29.24
October 29, 2024
CORN
Prices were $.02 higher today after jumping out to a 2 week high in early trade. Next resistance for Sept-24 is the July high at $4.13 ¾. Dec-24 resistance is at $4.26 ½. The USDA announced the sale of 200k mt (8 mil. bu.) of new crop corn to an unknown buyer. This is the first daily back-to-back sale announcements in 4 months. US corn is at a $6-$10/mt discount to Brazilian corn thru October which should help serve to accelerate new crop exports. Crop ratings slipped 1% to 67% G/E vs expectations of holding steady. Still the highest rated crop since 2020. Overall conditions improved in 9 states and declined in 9 states. 61% of the crop is silking very near the 62% YA and above the 5-year Ave. of 56%. 17% of the crop is in dough stage vs. 13% YA and 5-year Ave. of 11%. EIA data tomorrow is expected to show ethanol production last week to range from 1,070 – 1,106 tbd vs. 1,106 tbd the previous week. EU imports the 1st 3 weeks of the 24/25 MY at 1.42 mmt are up 39% YOY. With US farmers still holding a high percentage of last year’s crop intraday rallies will likely be hard to sustain as farmers clear bin space ahead of what’s likely to be a record yielding crop this fall.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex closed mixed with inverses in beans and oil pulling back significantly. Beans were steady to $.07 higher, meal was steady to down $1 while oil ranged from down 35 to up 40. For now Aug-24 beans rejected trade over $11.25. Aug-24 premium over Nov-24 corrected another $.07 today to $.42 bu., $.20 off Friday’s high. Next resistance for Nov-24 is $11.07. Support for Aug-24 oil is at the 100 day MA at 46.08. Aug-24 meal rejected trade over $345. The higher start likely the result of weather premium being added with much above normal temperatures expected for the US plains, Canadian prairies, and WCB along with limited prospects for rain thru the end of July. Heavy rains over the next week are expected for the US Gulf coast and SE with scattered rains for the NC Midwest and ECB. Widespread rains, particularly for the WCB, will be needed by early Aug-24 to maintain record corn and soybean yield potential. The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts lean to much above normal temperatures across the nation’s midsection with precipitation normal to above in the ECB, below normal in the WCB. Spot board crush margins slipped $.05 today to $1.50 a bu. Soybean ratings held steady at 68% G/E as expected. Conditions remain the highest since 2020. Ratings increased in 10 states, fell in 7, holding steady in 1. Biggest increases was in NC up 19%. Largest drop was in KS down 8% and TN down 5%. 65% of the crop is blooming in line with YA and above the 5-year Ave. of 60%. 29% of crop is setting pods vs. 31% YA and 5-year Ave. of 24%. EU soybean imports the 1st 3 weeks of the 24/25 MY at 600k mt are down 25.6% YOY.
WHEAT
Prices finished $.05-$.08 lower across all 3 classes today in choppy 2 sided trade. MGEX Sept-24 rejected trade over $6.25. Next resistance is the July-24 high at $6.36 ¼. Jordan passed on all offers for their 120k mt wheat tender citing prices were too high. SovEcon increased their Russian grain production forecast 3.1 mmt to 130.5 mmt however little of the higher production was wheat as that forecast rose only .1 mmt to 84.2 mmt, remaining slightly above the USDA at 83 mmt. Winter wheat harvest advanced only 5% LW to 76% complete, slightly behind expectations and above the 65% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 72%. Spring ratings held steady at 77% G/E, better than expectations. Overall ratings are the highest since 2018 which continue to support the record USDA yield forecast. 89% of the crop is headed in line with the historical average. EU soft wheat exports the 1st 3 weeks of the 24/25 MY at 1.44 mmt are down 35% YOY.
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