MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 8 cents and near 12.07. SMN is near 370.8. BON is near 43.13. CN is up 3 cents and near 4.63. WN is up 12 cents and near 6.16. KWN is upn11 cents and near 6.43. MWN is up 5 cents and near 7.14. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch and near $79. UN April food index was higher led by vegoil, cereal, meat and offset lower dairy and sugar.
SN is near 12.07. SN-SU spread is now +13. US soybean export commit is down 17 pct vs last year and USDA est of a 14 pct drop. Heavy rains continues to S Brazil. RGDS is 12 pct of the total Brazil soybean crop. SMN is up $46 from lows on lower South America supplies. BON is down 8 cents from high and pct of crush is now below 37 precent. Bears see soybean rally short covering not yet bull market, Matif rapeseed futures near 6 month high on EU crop worries.
CN is near 4.63. CN-CU spread narrowed into a 7 cent carry. Midwest rains could slow plantings but increase soil reserves. Weekly ethanol production was up 3 pct vs last week. Stocks were down 1 pct vs last week and lowest since Feb 2. Weekly US corn export commit is up 23 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26 pct. Trade looking for lower US 2023/24 corn carryout next week but higher 2024/25. Argentina lowered corn crop to 46 mmt vs 49 previous and USDA 55. One private crop watcher still est Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs one commercial at 124 and USDA 124.
WN is near 6.16. WN-WU spread is near 20 cent carry. US HRW south plains forecast is drier. Russia is forecast is drier. EU is wet especially west. Wheat could be about weather (US, EU, Black Sea), with May a critical month. Old crop US wheat export commit is down 1 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 6 pct drop. Matif funds flipped from a large short to new long and first long since July ,2023. Algeria appears to be buying wheat near $248 c&f which is up $20 from previous purchase.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Cocoa Market Remains Weather Sensitive
September 6, 2024
Crude Oil Subdued Reaction to Jobs Data
September 6, 2024